market-maniac

Back At It!

2010-06-07T20:05:00.000-07:00

I am going to do my darndest to update the blog at least every other day. It is good for me to do so, and will help me with making sure I do my homework. For some reason, I have been slacking off, and his caused me to miss several opportunities.
Here are my two trades today, both small winners, but on a day like this I sure feel like I left a bunch on the table.
ES is on top, and the other is the 6E

Continuation Trades

2010-04-12T19:13:00.000-07:00

The chart above is the same chart used below as an example of a break-out trade. This is the 6C from a few days back.

The continuation trade is taken ONLY after an initial stop-out of a break-out trade. We normally only take the very first one and avoid the chop that typically come in later. So...we are long and making a bit of money in our break-out trade...We see a closing red bar in the SMI and exit the market or place a VERY tight stop (depending on market conditions) and now we wait...The market must have had a successful B/O trade, and must remain cleanly above the PP and AA. Now, when we see a blue price bar AND a blue dot above the SMI indicator, we re-enter the market (usually on with a market order, but at times a stop order will be the right choice). A protective stop will typically go under the current swing low, or at times a pure money stop will be in play. We exit the position the same as the break-out trade; we clear the trade after a red bar shows up (on a closing basis) in the SMI study box.

Two More

2010-04-12T19:08:00.001-07:00

Another Example

2010-04-12T19:01:00.000-07:00

Here is another B/O trade example...I like this one a bit better than the first...Can you see why that may be so?

Rules (just a start)

2010-04-08T14:36:00.000-07:00

The above chart is an example of one B/O and one continuation trade

ramblings to start

3 types of trades
---B/O trade
---RT trade
---continuous trade

"normally" we want the first trade of the day to be either the B/O or RT trade

"normally" we want only one continuous AFTER a B/O trade (after that it often gets messy)

B/O trade = Buy
price is below both the PP and AA and moving up
price crosses up through BOTH the PP and AA
the B/O bar must be hard blue closing above both lines
the SMI4 must have at least a blue dot at or above the zero line (some leeway?)

If these conditions exist AFTER a symmetrical AB pattern (a higher low)

we buy one tick above the signal bar (which can often be a market order)

Continuation rules in my next post

A(nother) Fresh Start

2010-04-08T13:23:00.000-07:00

I may have stumbled on to something that is easier, cleaner, and allows very little guesswork.

The tools needed at this point are

trend bars (default) Big Mike
123 swing (AA) (9-5) Richard MtM
Price Proxy (default) Richard MtM
SMI4 (13) Big Mike

that's it! I have 2 other "maybes", but for testing purposes, this will do fine. It is a very clean chart, easy on the eyes, and so far relatively easy to trade.

Some rules in the next post...

Rules (adding as I go)

2009-12-06T20:40:00.000-08:00

CL

BUY
a break above both lines
its a candlestick bar---we need the total body above the line
disregard the tail if needed
buy stop a tick above (gotta be quick)
chop is always going to be subjective, but a lower high and a higher low
certainly qualify

More CL

2009-12-06T14:12:00.000-08:00

insane day in this one!

Testing in the CL

2009-12-03T20:35:00.001-08:00

Rather promising for such simplicity...
This is with no filters, no regard for chop, although this was NOT
a choppy day, and no judgement using a few simple rules.

This is very close to what I was doing
using the EOT tools, so I am staying close to home I guess
Sweet so far...

just showing off...

2009-12-02T13:36:00.000-08:00

I usually try to scalp the notes, just going after 1 1/2 ticks with maybe a runner... The last several days, this market has looked like railroad tracks going east and west---just nothing at all, and the volume has been shifting over to March as well... After a few days like, we usually see some kind of trend or break out...
anyway---a good day

Let me splain. No, there is too much....Let me sum up. ...

2009-11-30T18:23:00.000-08:00

Limit orders vs. Stop orders

The reason I gravitated to a break-out system is because although it cant be programmed, it is easily the most mechanical way to trade.

1. You see the formation shaping up
2. You scan the indicators
3. If they pass the test, put the stop order in right away ON A STOP
4. Your are using the DOME, so its all programmed in; no worries there

Why?

1. You can look at other markets
2. You can talk to your children
3. You can turn your head away from the screen
4. Limit orders are counter productive using my method
5. I want a fill and I want it when the B/O is hit
6. I DON'T WANT the market backing up to me-I don't want a better fill, I want a B/O !
7. If you put in a limit order after the fact, what if you miss? Are you going to
chase?
Who needs the aggravation? Heck, you needs the question?
8. If you chase, the market will turn on you...If you don't chase, you will miss the
trade of the week...Just the way it is...
9. If the market changes...a big report is looming...whatever, use the cancel
button...easy, and no second guessing.

Any questions?

I'm Back

2009-11-17T19:59:00.000-08:00

It has been more than a little while, but I am back and posting again...I have had more than a few problems but (mostly computer and connection) that's life...

I am on my own for the time being (my own indicators and no trading room), and exploring what I can find out there in the open access world---a few very interesting items and a ton of interesting ideas...

There are so many things out there, I wonder how many people trade and make money versus just trade here and there and discover new stuff?

It's OK either way, it just depends on ones true motivation...

Its not always that clear---and sometimes we, ourselves don't know...

I have a dear friend---he and I used to play poker quite a bit, sometimes at the same table. He was grousing about some of the players at the table one day, and I mentioned that we were all there for different reasons. He very adamantly stated he was there to make some money and nothing else...

If you watched him, nothing could be further from the truth...He was there socially, he was there to have fun...he was there to show off his verbal skills...he loved to be funny...he loved to be loved (even though he would kill me if he ever read this)...he was also a good solid player and hated to lose...

Now, this friend is one of the smartest people I have ever known, and if he is that clueless about a silly poker game, all us traders better be darn sure why we are playing THIS game.

Anyone reading this is a victim of some rambling thoughts...Trade well

Nice AM Trade

2009-10-22T06:00:00.001-07:00

Wheat

2009-10-13T09:51:00.000-07:00

A Good ES Trade

2009-10-12T17:20:00.000-07:00

a break below all 3 lines and AA AND the previous pivot with a sell arrow...Do you see how my 3 lines are very close together? I dont quite know how to measure that, but a trade almost always works better when they break out after "kissing"...

ZN of the Day

2009-10-12T17:12:00.001-07:00

As you can see, the market broke below all 3 "lines" as well as AA WITH a down paint bar...

I Was Hoping to Stay in Longer Term, but

2009-09-30T18:48:00.000-07:00

I have been strongly bearish (long term) the gold and silver markets...Not a bad way to be long the US Dollar by proxy...but a trade is a trade...I was originally short around 1008, got stopped out in an overnight session; re entered the following morning around the same price...this chart just shows the stop out to a friend and my rationale for where the stop was...
so 1008 to 996 still works for me...I want to get short again as soon as it makes sense...

this is sick---

2009-09-30T18:34:00.000-07:00

I had a great day today, but to miss this ...well...it's annoying, but I can only look at so many markets at a time...
I like a time window on crude...seems (so far) to work better than any range I have seen to date.

Once you had the break, you really had no choice but to make about 120 points...
There are lots of false break outs in CL but wow---what a day today...

paper oil

2009-09-30T18:27:00.000-07:00

This trade idea certainly wasn't optimum ( all 3 of my lines were stretched) I like them close...but none the less a break below all 5 (with a blue arrow) was a non thinking 40 points at a minimum...

Life Should Always Be So Easy

2009-09-30T17:13:00.000-07:00

a break below ALL 5 with a yellow arrow....and nary a pullback...4 and 17...

I may be larnin' a little about this tradin' thang...

sick day...

I'll Have Another

2009-09-30T17:10:00.000-07:00

4 and 8 here...I was happy at the time...

The First of the Day

2009-09-30T16:42:00.000-07:00

One had a choice here...I waited for the break below the previous plot cycle (the red line) but you can see the yellow arrow gave a signal on a close below all 3 lines...either one resulted in NO PAIN and very little drawdown either way...hard to believe one contact took 4 ticks, but the choppy days, that one point can put a smile on your face...anyway---4 and 24 on this little move...nice start!

and can Amy discern how that 24 was figured?

Im not done---but Im hot and tired

2009-09-25T12:47:00.000-07:00

There are always "contrarians" who THINK they are contrarians... ---I think this chart gets you thinking...This chart clearly suggests getting long was to get long when this chart broke 60 ish...My daily charts liked the creak out in mar/April... BUT truly diabolical thinking gets you thinking long in the last chart while P/E retros were breaking out above 60 ish... If you were a top picker, one might be out about NOW!

This has Nothing To Do

2009-09-20T19:36:00.000-07:00

With my day trading decisions...

but from a longer term perspective, you might think twice about " the recession is over" party line...

life is good

2009-09-18T14:16:00.001-07:00

sweet

It's Refreshing !

2009-09-17T18:55:00.000-07:00

I actually went out of my way today, and called (or IM'd) everyone I know to get the hell out of any long equity positions...
The way you have to look at any investment is---RISK...

Let us pretend I'm full of "stuff" and dead wrong in my long term scenario...does that mean the market will continue it's manic pace to the upside? I don't think so...

It's more fun than I thought to NOT straddle the fence...

SELL, SELL

I Like This

2009-09-16T19:48:00.000-07:00

Even though I typically loathe newsletters---this is a promo I received from "the boys" that was a dead on classic---

time to pay attention---

It's unanimous: The bear market is over, and a new bull market is back!

At least that's the conventional wisdom of the top 55 U.S. economists, who predict that the economy will grow in the fourth quarter through the first half of 2010. (All but one of them expect growth this quarter.)

Rewind to February-March of this year ...

... When those same economists reported that the economy was in "the worst recession since the Great Depression."

That's also precisely when stocks and commodities rallied.

Now, six months later, even the Fed chairman has declared the worst is over.

What's changed?

In a word: psychology.

The natural flow of investor psychology has traced out a recognizable pattern. As optimism builds, so does the perception of a recovery. It's to be expected -- even predictable. After all, the simple truth is that investors, advisors and analysts alike herd. Positive price action -- in their minds -- begets other positive action. It's all-too similar to the optimism we observed in late 2007, when various markets stood at or near their all-time highs.

But today not even the so-called fundamentals support the notion of a recovery:

Large pockets of the U.S. real estate market, including metro Atlanta, are still racking up record monthly foreclosures.
The global shipping industry has slowed to a crawl; thousands of ships around the world sit empty and idle.
Bank credit and the M3 money supply have been contracting at rates comparable to the onset of the Great Depression.
And believe it or not, reports are surfacing of lending institutions returning to their old tricks from two years ago.

more ZN

2009-09-11T09:25:00.001-07:00

Thursday Comments

2009-09-10T19:40:00.000-07:00

That 1035 high "prediction" looks ok if you like getting up at 1 AM or so to trade!! In any case, the market did indeed break-out as expected and trended higher in a reasonable fashion. The note (ZN) market was good to me today, but it was all SIM trades again as I'm still fighting with computers...The gold market looks like it wants to challenge 1025 and get every last laggard of a gold bug to buy at the top; its gonna hurt when they get their dick slammed in the door on that one!

I feel like I have gone NOWHERE and done nothing for 2 weeks...One computer issue after another...Very annoying...
I downloaded a new version of Ninja, cleaned up the instrument manager and a few other tweaks; so far this afternoon it's all working perfectly using the E signal data and IB as a back up. Fingers are crossed for tomorrow morning!

I ordered an external HD today as I want to back everything up and re format the HD. I need an end to the 3 minute boot up process (which feels like 3 hours!)

I am re reading Trading in the Zone...It all makes sense but a much tougher read than a couple others...

Hard to believe the week is gone already...

Thurs AM ZN

2009-09-10T19:14:00.000-07:00

I wrote above---a 3 tick max, when it was in fact a 3 POINT max...it has a better sound to it!

For Tomorrow

2009-09-08T18:48:00.000-07:00

Even though today was pretty good, the fact remains that the market was rangebound between 1020 and 1025. I am expecting some sort of break-out very soon. It seems like a rally early makes sense and it sure as heck looks like a given that 1027 gets hit. Sell signals after that? It sure would be fun to catch a trending day!!
numbers: 1019 on the downside is all I have that's close...upside is anywhere between 1025 and 1035

Tired

2009-09-08T16:36:00.000-07:00

The last 10 days or so have been wearing...Hardware issues, software issues and Ninja again this morning. I THINK I have everything in order, but the next couple days should tell the story. I must say that Ninja support (although all E mail) is really on the ball. I'm also going to order a back up hard drive---I have been reading too many horror stories lately and for a hundred bucks for a one terabyte WD, seems like a no-brainer. Other frustrations abound, but not a thing I can do about it,so I will be trading around it for awhile.

I suppose the time off from trading has been helpful in a certain sense as my overall trading pattern has evolved yet again and looks better all the time. I was bogged down all day today with bullshit, and never really looked hard at a chart till recently...for a low volume day, it doesn't get much better than this...

Not Much on This One

2009-09-08T16:30:00.001-07:00

Only had 2 1/2 ticks in it, but only a 2 tick DD as well...no reason not to break even here...

I'll have another

2009-08-31T20:00:00.000-07:00

The wheat chart (below) was pretty cute, but the Euro wasn't too shabby...

While others are playing---

2009-08-31T19:38:00.000-07:00

It was clearly a terrible day to trade ( in THE ES!!)...Just a reminder to my friends out there that are many ways to skin that cat...

Bahh

2009-08-30T09:04:00.000-07:00

It was a lost few days...software problems, hardware problems...overslept one day also, all of which was annoying, but at least I was smart enough to SIM trade only.

It wasn't all bad though, as I saw a couple of improvements (filters?) that look to be helpful. It will cut down on the number of entries, but at the same time I think it will reduce on the "judgement calls"...This adjustment is suited for a NEW entry, (usually in a new direction)...trade entries AFTER this initial signal are still subject to my older ideas)

I may move to slightly quicker 2584 vol chart...I have tried to use two charts (one for a longer term filter) but so far this causes more trouble than it's worth)

Possible New Rule
(an example of a buy signal)
Price is UNDER all three
---allas av
---vwap
---cycle MA (another possible filter-HAS to be green to trade long)

buy on a stop-one tick above AA
a 6 or 7 tick stop looks ok for now---more fine tuning to come

edit: When all these levels meet, this point of equilibrium may last awhile and be in chop---it will break out!!

edit: Must ignore my RSI on these entries---always going to be OB/OS---only use for re-entry sigs

edit: IF both the VWAP and the CMA are crossing each other AT THE PRICE, and pointed up it could be a good entry

It looks like even on Friday (which was horribly choppy and thin), taking every signal would have produced a small gain...more testing as always...

just a day

2009-08-25T17:59:00.000-07:00

I had some computer issues today, so no trades...I think it would have been an OK day-nothing earth shaking...I didn't seem to be too bothered with the problems...I was a little tired though as I have been spending too many hours in front of the screen lately. Anyway, I'm all fixed up after I had to remember the various stop strategies with Ninja...

It did feel good to just relax for a day...And now I'm gonna push away from the desk and call it a day...14 hours is plenty I guess...

Part 2

2009-08-25T17:08:00.000-07:00

Interesting...I didn't see it till later, but a very similar break out as earlier this AM and not one tick of drawdown on either one...

nice, but too early

2009-08-25T07:22:00.000-07:00

close...it was around 4 AM...

ZN looking good in the early AM

2009-08-24T18:35:00.001-07:00

more testing

2009-08-24T15:35:00.001-07:00

I sent this off to a buddy a little while ago for more testing---I dont think I have time to mess with it, but it looks interesting...

just a post

2009-08-23T17:19:00.000-07:00

I probably should have taken the day off, but I'm not sure what to do if I don't golf...

The Kwik pop idea was ok...But basically it's just a visual for buying higher highs and selling lower lows...It's not all bad since that very idea led me to my current trading idea...A long weekend with not much to show for it, but I did learn a little...

morning ritual

2009-08-23T10:13:00.000-07:00

I'm not terrible, just a little scattered in the mornings; so I see the need to write myself a little list/routine which I will have on this here journal...I will add to this a little at a time, but it shouldn't be a big challenge...All I know is nothing happens too fast around here at 4 30 AM!!

Visual of my morning

---turn on machines
---If I didn't make coffee first, I would perish!
---feed the pup,cats
---sounds funny, but wipe down the desk area...dusty as hell in here
---check trades from previous day
---order entry (dome ready)
---scan overnight markets
---ck E-mails
---by now 2 cups are in me--treadmill time...about 5 mins of as fast as I can go-sure as hell gets the blood moving ( I try this every 90 mins or so)
---make sure charts are set up and accurate
---wave count? pivots
---read trading notes from previous evening
---ck 10 yr Notes
---morning reading (blog list)
---by now its about 6 or 6 15
---open the room
---ck for TVGR at 6 30 dammit!
---and off we go

Hmmm

2009-08-22T22:03:00.000-07:00

Do my eyes deceive me? Or do I see a pattern with a Kwik Pop indicator that looks really juicy the last couple of days...I'll explore more tomorrow...I have been here all day...tired...

I have to laugh

2009-08-22T19:05:00.000-07:00

I have made a few references as to my regard for Dr. Bretts book---

The Daily Trading Coach: 101 Lessons for Becoming Your Own Trading Psychologist

After a very quick read, then a slower one, I am now on the chapter by chapter thing and REALLY giving some deep thought to it all...I learn more every read...

The funny part...I was on Amazon and came upon the book again...I dunno, maybe they wanted a review or something...Anyway, my latest favorite book had a ONE STAR review...I was intrigued...So I read this guys comments...the crux of what he wrote is---

But upon reading it, I realized it's about training yourself to be a coach for yourself??

Fer chrissakes, look at the title!!
LOL...Im glad this fukker isn't in our trading room!!

Pre-Open Ideas

2009-08-22T12:33:00.000-07:00

I was trying to come up with something that looked feasible to trade before the $SPX opened, so needless to say I started looking at the 10yr Notes. All I have done so far is take the cycle high and low from about 3:30 AM to 5:00 AM, draw horizontal lines and look to trade the break-out.

It looks like most mornings get tied up in a very narrow channel, and "appear" to be waiting for something to happen. This is actually a strange idea for me because of the number of reports coming out between 5:30 and 7:00, but (so far) seems worth looking into. I have never felt comfortable trading right in front of, or during the morning reports, but there may be something to this. Just because I was bothered by the report idea doesn't mean there isn't something there!

The following 2 posts show the last 2 weeks of 2 minute ZN charts during the most likely trading times. Clearly a work in progress at this point.

Week beginning Aug 17

2009-08-22T12:26:00.000-07:00

Week beginning Aug 10

2009-08-22T12:12:00.001-07:00

these are NOT in order---

trading

2009-08-21T22:03:00.000-07:00

I haven't written much about real time actual trades...my "money method" appears to be doing well...for sure the markets are choppier than usual (August blues!) but doing pretty well...

I have made money...

Still having the same problem in pulling the trigger...trying not to beat myself up over it...visualizing dispassionately taking each trade

I am better than I used to be...

annoyed at myself

2009-08-21T11:33:00.000-07:00

I have done this before and it's annoying as hell...today was a TVGR open and I DID NOT see it till much later in the day...

I keep forgetting to check for it on the open...it didn't cost me any money, but it's still inexcusable...damn!!

edgy

2009-08-20T10:09:00.000-07:00

really edgy today...
have no idea why...
slept well ate well...
for a calm guy, pretty nervous...

surreal

2009-08-19T20:49:00.000-07:00

It has always been a contradiction...always...

I am very private. to the point of selfishness...I always had this tendency but seems more prevalent now...I don't see it as a problem, just the way it is.
So why is it that I kinda like teaching? Ego has to be part of it, but I do admit there is some satisfaction there...

In one of the chapters, Steenbarger writes about helping others, being a mentor, blah blah...Not my everyday cup of tea, but in for a penny, in for a pound...

Anyway, I guess I am a mentor now...I offered to help someone from the room...We have exchanged a few E mails...She seems pretty sharp so we will see...

late night idea

2009-08-17T20:41:00.000-07:00

note to self---getting late---dont forget the RSI in conjunction with the channels...looks golden for good fills

I guess it's time

2009-08-02T09:10:00.000-07:00

It's always the same...A new idea, dreams of success, the fear of failure, all that shit...

Nervous as hell, but it's time to get the feet wet and go live, even if it's half size stuff...

the fear isn't logical, but its still there...all the books in the world don't change that!!

Wave 59

2009-07-31T10:56:00.000-07:00

I am trying a new idea...It's a trial to Wave 59...It's an OK piece of software with lots of astrological stuff connected to it...Now I wouldnt give anyone a nickel for my horoscope but maybe there is something here...

But after looking, its an extremely steep learning curve, so I will let this one go..maybe there is something to it, but certainly not for me, and clearly not better than what I am working on now.

irritated

2009-07-31T10:43:00.000-07:00

I wanted to go back at re test some earlier testing...I had BLANKS in some days...WHY? lazy? denial? and now I don't have historical data that goes back that far (volume charts)...inexcusable

hardware

2009-07-12T08:49:00.000-07:00

I would love to build a hot rod computer, but that will have to wait...I want to have it EXCLUSIVELY for trading, no E mail, nothing but charts and trading stuff.

In the mean time, I do find the need to look at more stuff at the same time, so I am splurging-no-investing in a new toy...It's a new 24 inch monitor...very sweet...and it only took me an hour to set up the dual monitor deal-pretty painless overall.

Might sound strange but now I want another 21 inch for the other side...I don't really need it, but I feel out of balance the way it is set up right now.

Ninja

2009-07-10T18:45:00.000-07:00

I tried, but I can't get around it. I have to buy Ninjatrader. The trading dome is the most amazing thing I have ever seen, and even if it wasn't, I need it to trade what is becoming "my system". The automatic order entry, the auto stop and cancels, OCO etc are now a huge part of my research, so Ninja gets a grand pretty soon. Having said all that, I am a little shocked you can buy the damn thing for only $1000...

me time

2009-06-30T18:03:00.000-07:00

---as always, doing some more testing on other ideas...I swear daily charts are a pain in the ass to build something I can live with...When I find a combination that gives 65% winners with no worse than a 25% drawdown in the Wheat market, THAT will be the grail!! Of course I can always have a lower drawdown as long as my account is huge---position sizing, remember?

---visualizing taking my trades

---visualizing getting stopped out

---reading Dr. Brett...That Trading Coach book is pretty damn cool...I never spent much time with all this self coaching, but no stone goes unturned this time around. Become Your Own Trading Coach is the official name...If anyone ever does stumble over here go here...
I'm blasting through it at the moment, then I'll read it slower next time, then go chapter by chapter.

---The room keeps me amused at times, but I am turning it lower and lower...It's hard to believe a guy who trades for a living gets so excited when he gets a runner...maybe it's for the attendees...I have been through a couple of cycles of people (always some stalwarts) in the room and it's always interesting to measure whether or not they have a chance...rather judgemental of me since I haven't proved jack shit, but it is interesting! It's not the ignorance, but the TYPE of question that gives it away...lots of people still want it given to them-course they are hopeless...A few others are pretty sharp...some ask too many curiosity questions---most of which you can google---I think they might be OK, but need to focus...I would read all day if I could, but once the bell rings all that stuff goes out the window...Give me a signal!!

Which reminds me...I have learned something valuable there in the room...Bill LOVES to get a signal...Of course you need a signal to make money, but I often viewed it with trepidation...Learning good stuff...Signals are good!!

still looks good

2009-06-27T17:44:00.000-07:00

I'm taking a week off from even looking at the "money program"...I want to come back fresh and look at it with a SUPER critical eye. Computerized testing of mechanical systems is so cool; no judgement no emotion, basically no human needed. My little pot of gold need a human touch...So before I go falling in love, I want to bring in a grizzled old eunuch to make sure I'm not being blind!

Nahh---It Couldn't Be

2009-06-22T17:18:00.000-07:00

It took a couple days to write this...makes me nervous...I am writing this very guardedly...I don't believe in miracles and I'm not comfortable being giddy...

high winning %---check
low drawdown---check
fairly active---check
system---nope (not programmable)
mechanical---kinda
robust---check (so far)

wow...

Kinda funny really, after all these years, it's a couple of lines meeting another line? Bizarre...If it works, it's certainly one of life's little quirks!

In my testing, other than being a complete idiot, the biggest mistake you can make is NOT taking a trade. I find that rather ironic since pulling the trigger is my biggest weakness. As always, I tried to test under less than optimum circumstances and passed comfortably...Hell---if it's half as good as what it looks like, it is still tradeable, even for me. The super low drawdowns are so cool...I have seen some losses in chop, but very manageable and usually not more than 3 in a row...I'm looking for filters now...

Current Events

2009-06-05T16:51:00.000-07:00

I'm on with EOT...I'm on with E Signal...
The main reason for ESignal is to try to match Bill's trades in the room. I have RT data from IB, but the volume numbers are worthless. After all that, I don't see how its possible to take identical trades as he does. He basically uses market orders (buys the offer for example) but I see no way I could get those same fills. If you are going for just 4 ticks, the fill is the trade! Maybe he is on a super fast cable and Clearwire is holding me back...I have heard the same from others in the room, so I'm not the only one. You see the trading dome so I have to assume its all real...

The better news is I have already found some valuable tools in my EOT box of goodies! Found one that looks really cool and a couple more "maybes"...more testing is needed obviously. Good times...

Elmer Fudd

2009-06-02T16:34:00.000-07:00

My million dollar paper trading account-affectionately known as "The Elmer Fudd Hedge Fund" has been doing quite well. I haven't written about it here much as I wanted to concentrate on REAL futures trading . But it is fun to write down strange and unusual ideas. I had a a gold/silver ratio spread that did real well but the most obscure is the following...

Awhile back I had read that HRP was a standout in the REIT world in that they were very well managed and didn't make the billion dollar mistakes the others did. Now you don't have to be a genius to know the CRE sector is in the dumpster, so as a good paper trader would do, I pretended I had an analyst to confirm that HRP was indeed a front runner in that sector. I then bought 20K of HRP and simultaneously shorted 20K of VNQ (a REIT ETF). It worked like a dream! A fundamental idea and using my techs---fun stuff!!

more EOT

2009-06-01T16:19:00.000-07:00

It can't be all smoke and mirrors can it? The room guy (Bill) makes money about 70% of his trades...lots of small scalps and a runner...trades 3/1 with a 4 tick target for 3...I have never really thought of scalping like that, but what the hell...his weekly and monthly P/L look impressive...the programmer is a brain trust who I enjoy listening to...he has given me a few ideas that I wrote down...the owner (I guess) sounds like a cross between an airplane pilot and a cowboy...been around longer than me!

I guess my only reservation is he can't literally call out trades (NFA shit-I UNDERSTAND), but he sure gets some good fills when I put the pieces together. They aren't outlandish, and all are possible, just good fills...But...

I'm spending more money...

A Quiet Update

2009-05-27T16:00:00.000-07:00

Lots of reading...lots of testing...

I found something mildly interesting the other day. A guy is selling a long-term trading system, (using weekly charts of all things) tested back to 1970 (when possible). I had him take "my" 5 commodities and back test just those 5 and it came back a winner. The drawdown was too much and the break even period was excessive. I am still interested though because it could be a valuable adjunct to my future plans. I need a bunch more money to make that happen though, so it will be awhile. The cool thing about this one is that it's completely disclosed when you buy it, so it's not some BS black box shyster program. Long term trading is not my style, but think it could fit as a part of a diversified trading portfolio.

The other room has been interesting...The guy is amusing (usually) and seems to trade real time right there...I have to admit I have never seen that before...It would be nice if its not a bunch of bullshit...I'm sure I will find out soon.

rooms

2009-05-20T15:51:00.000-07:00

While I play around with kwikpop, there is another room am listening to...EOT pro...I never heard them but at least they are trading and using their own stuff...we will see...free trial (for the room) so far...

I found a cross over method that looks ok, but for me the drawdowns would be bothersome.

Kwik Pop

2009-05-19T15:27:00.000-07:00

I'm really irritated now...I signed up for their trading room and I find some guy throwing out trades every one in awhile and not even using the indicators!!

I am often reminded that there are VERY damn few people in this business who actually can make money trading. My friend went to a seminar not too long ago in Chicago...spent some time on the exchanges etc...was surrounded my millions of people supporting the financial business and realized not one in a ten thousand were able to trade successfully. Some folks like to say how cheap it is to have your own trading business, but of course they are full of shit. By the time you add up broker fees, data feeds, hardware, software, and maybe office space. It adds up to a pretty good number, and it never goes away. Always good to remember that individually these folks aren't the culprits, but collectively they are there like piranha in the Amazon river, just waiting for a small bite, and sooner or later there is no meat on the bone.

meh

2009-05-13T15:18:00.000-07:00

Well hell...I know its only been a couple of days, but Kwik Pop has failed to impress so far. They are different, but have a common theme (to me) in that they are like a bunch of other stuff that's available.--I'm always pretty quick to judge, so I will be patient and see what happens. In a library of 35+ (or is it 50?0 I'm sure I can find something.

Spending Money

2009-05-07T14:41:00.000-07:00

It kills me to spend money, but I also know I cant figure this stuff out all by myself. I admire those guys that spent hours hunched over computer code to write new indicators and systems. I just wasn't that smart!

It used to be all the systems were priced at 3000...these days it looks like leasing at 233 a month is the popular ticket.

Anyway, I signed up with Kwik-Pop, downloaded their library of indicators, and will see what I find.

Amazing Free Stuff

2009-05-06T14:30:00.000-07:00

When I was most active in the markets, there was only one piece programmable software that was usable, and that was Tradestation. I just downloaded Ninjatrader for free, and you can color me amazed! I know Ninja isn't brand new, but it is to me. Simply an incredible piece of software and if I don't trade through it, its free...A great new tool...

Baby Steps

2009-05-05T14:09:00.000-07:00

You can't trade without a broker, so after a bit of looking around, Interactive Brokers has my money. I wish I could send more, but it is what it is.

---LOW commissions (although all are cheap these days)
---I can trade ANYTHING through these people
---almost free real time quotes for most markets
---free historical data for the past year
---OCO orders are held on THEIR servers (the only one I found)
---was all done online...no humans involved ( I do have emergency toll free #s)

Of course, I have had an account elsewhere for years, but this is a makeover! I also opened (but did not fund) a back-up brokerage account with Tradestation. As time goes on, I will be depositing some cash with TS for emergency use (if IB goes down or?)

I haven't even made a trade yet, but I feel better already!

Takes too long, let me sum up...

2009-04-27T13:28:00.000-07:00

After 25 years in the markets, one would have a legitimate question asking --- why success now? and why is it different this time?

As someone who mostly believes it is NEVER different this time, it's a damn good question.

The main reason is that the passion is back in full force. Motivation is also part of the answer, as other parts of life are shall we say, challenging. Although I continue to be computer challenged, the research and testing is a million times easier than it was the last time I worked on this idea. I have looked, tested, and purchased and endless array of products including books, software, systems, promises and hot air. It is a combination of a bit of age, tons of experience and a healthier and more energetic outlook that promises to make the search worthwhile and fulfilling.

I have been lucky in that I have rarely been afflicted by the usual reasons for failure. The litany of these reasons are common to all...emotional trading, chasing losses, trying to get even, overtrading, lack of discipline and on it goes.

I am most certainly not impervious to these foibles, but I do believe the reason lies in never having found a good enough trading method, or if I did, it did not fit either my personality or the bankroll. Is that head-in-the-sand thinking? Am I in denial? I don't think so...And since nobody is reading this , and nobody who knows me ever will, it seems a bit silly to lie to yourself on paper.

So---I have been looking at a million different indicators, visiting trading rooms and making an exhaustive look at what's out there. This is basically an all day project, 6 days a week all day. I have my burn-out moments, but they don't last too long, and I'm back on the horse the next day.

And So It Begins

2009-04-22T17:09:00.000-07:00

I felt it a few months ago...It was an almost unconscious feeling, an awareness of things different. It's more than a bit difficult to describe but the bottom line is I had woken up and the passion had returned. It was time to get to work!!

I have been active in the markets in various way for the past 25 years. I have made some money, lost some money and at times thought I was a pretty good trader. Unfortunately trading reality always finds your weakness, and of course that reality found me without too much trouble, and more than a couple of times.

I can see my vision...

The journey starts now...