Let me splain. No, there is too much....Let me sum up. ...

Limit orders vs. Stop orders

The reason I gravitated to a break-out system is because although it cant be programmed, it is easily the most mechanical way to trade.

1. You see the formation shaping up
2. You scan the indicators
3. If they pass the test, put the stop order in right away ON A STOP
4. Your are using the DOME, so its all programmed in; no worries there

Why?

1. You can look at other markets
2. You can talk to your children
3. You can turn your head away from the screen
4. Limit orders are counter productive using my method
5. I want a fill and I want it when the B/O is hit
6. I DON'T WANT the market backing up to me-I don't want a better fill, I want a B/O !
7. If you put in a limit order after the fact, what if you miss? Are you going to
chase?
Who needs the aggravation? Heck, you needs the question?
8. If you chase, the market will turn on you...If you don't chase, you will miss the
trade of the week...Just the way it is...
9. If the market changes...a big report is looming...whatever, use the cancel
button...easy, and no second guessing.

Any questions?

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I'm Back

It has been more than a little while, but I am back and posting again...I have had more than a few problems but (mostly computer and connection) that's life...

I am on my own for the time being (my own indicators and no trading room), and exploring what I can find out there in the open access world---a few very interesting items and a ton of interesting ideas...

There are so many things out there, I wonder how many people trade and make money versus just trade here and there and discover new stuff?

It's OK either way, it just depends on ones true motivation...

Its not always that clear---and sometimes we, ourselves don't know...

I have a dear friend---he and I used to play poker quite a bit, sometimes at the same table. He was grousing about some of the players at the table one day, and I mentioned that we were all there for different reasons. He very adamantly stated he was there to make some money and nothing else...

If you watched him, nothing could be further from the truth...He was there socially, he was there to have fun...he was there to show off his verbal skills...he loved to be funny...he loved to be loved (even though he would kill me if he ever read this)...he was also a good solid player and hated to lose...

Now, this friend is one of the smartest people I have ever known, and if he is that clueless about a silly poker game, all us traders better be darn sure why we are playing THIS game.

Anyone reading this is a victim of some rambling thoughts...Trade well

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this is sick---

I had a great day today, but to miss this ...well...it's annoying, but I can only look at so many markets at a time...
I like a time window on crude...seems (so far) to work better than any range I have seen to date.

Once you had the break, you really had no choice but to make about 120 points...
There are lots of false break outs in CL but wow---what a day today...

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I'll Have Another

4 and 8 here...I was happy at the time...

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The First of the Day

One had a choice here...I waited for the break below the previous plot cycle (the red line) but you can see the yellow arrow gave a signal on a close below all 3 lines...either one resulted in NO PAIN and very little drawdown either way...hard to believe one contact took 4 ticks, but the choppy days, that one point can put a smile on your face...anyway---4 and 24 on this little move...nice start!

and can Amy discern how that 24 was figured?

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Im not done---but Im hot and tired

There are always "contrarians" who THINK they are contrarians... ---I think this chart gets you thinking...This chart clearly suggests getting long was to get long when this chart broke 60 ish...My daily charts liked the creak out in mar/April... BUT truly diabolical thinking gets you thinking long in the last chart while P/E retros were breaking out above 60 ish... If you were a top picker, one might be out about NOW!

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This has Nothing To Do

With my day trading decisions...

but from a longer term perspective, you might think twice about " the recession is over" party line...

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life is good

sweet

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It's Refreshing !

I actually went out of my way today, and called (or IM'd) everyone I know to get the hell out of any long equity positions...
The way you have to look at any investment is---RISK...

Let us pretend I'm full of "stuff" and dead wrong in my long term scenario...does that mean the market will continue it's manic pace to the upside? I don't think so...

It's more fun than I thought to NOT straddle the fence...

SELL, SELL

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I Like This

Even though I typically loathe newsletters---this is a promo I received from "the boys" that was a dead on classic---

time to pay attention---

It's unanimous: The bear market is over, and a new bull market is back!

At least that's the conventional wisdom of the top 55 U.S. economists, who predict that the economy will grow in the fourth quarter through the first half of 2010. (All but one of them expect growth this quarter.)

Rewind to February-March of this year ...

... When those same economists reported that the economy was in "the worst recession since the Great Depression."

That's also precisely when stocks and commodities rallied.

Now, six months later, even the Fed chairman has declared the worst is over.

What's changed?

In a word: psychology.

The natural flow of investor psychology has traced out a recognizable pattern. As optimism builds, so does the perception of a recovery. It's to be expected -- even predictable. After all, the simple truth is that investors, advisors and analysts alike herd. Positive price action -- in their minds -- begets other positive action. It's all-too similar to the optimism we observed in late 2007, when various markets stood at or near their all-time highs.

But today not even the so-called fundamentals support the notion of a recovery:

• Large pockets of the U.S. real estate market, including metro Atlanta, are still racking up record monthly foreclosures.
• The global shipping industry has slowed to a crawl; thousands of ships around the world sit empty and idle.
• Bank credit and the M3 money supply have been contracting at rates comparable to the onset of the Great Depression.
• And believe it or not, reports are surfacing of lending institutions returning to their old tricks from two years ago.

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more ZN

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Thursday Comments

That 1035 high "prediction" looks ok if you like getting up at 1 AM or so to trade!! In any case, the market did indeed break-out as expected and trended higher in a reasonable fashion. The note (ZN) market was good to me today, but it was all SIM trades again as I'm still fighting with computers...The gold market looks like it wants to challenge 1025 and get every last laggard of a gold bug to buy at the top; its gonna hurt when they get their dick slammed in the door on that one!

I feel like I have gone NOWHERE and done nothing for 2 weeks...One computer issue after another...Very annoying...
I downloaded a new version of Ninja, cleaned up the instrument manager and a few other tweaks; so far this afternoon it's all working perfectly using the E signal data and IB as a back up. Fingers are crossed for tomorrow morning!

I ordered an external HD today as I want to back everything up and re format the HD. I need an end to the 3 minute boot up process (which feels like 3 hours!)

I am re reading Trading in the Zone...It all makes sense but a much tougher read than a couple others...

Hard to believe the week is gone already...

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Thurs AM ZN

I wrote above---a 3 tick max, when it was in fact a 3 POINT max...it has a better sound to it!

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For Tomorrow

Even though today was pretty good, the fact remains that the market was rangebound between 1020 and 1025. I am expecting some sort of break-out very soon. It seems like a rally early makes sense and it sure as heck looks like a given that 1027 gets hit. Sell signals after that? It sure would be fun to catch a trending day!!
numbers: 1019 on the downside is all I have that's close...upside is anywhere between 1025 and 1035

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Tired

The last 10 days or so have been wearing...Hardware issues, software issues and Ninja again this morning. I THINK I have everything in order, but the next couple days should tell the story. I must say that Ninja support (although all E mail) is really on the ball. I'm also going to order a back up hard drive---I have been reading too many horror stories lately and for a hundred bucks for a one terabyte WD, seems like a no-brainer. Other frustrations abound, but not a thing I can do about it,so I will be trading around it for awhile.

I suppose the time off from trading has been helpful in a certain sense as my overall trading pattern has evolved yet again and looks better all the time. I was bogged down all day today with bullshit, and never really looked hard at a chart till recently...for a low volume day, it doesn't get much better than this...

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Not Much on This One

Only had 2 1/2 ticks in it, but only a 2 tick DD as well...no reason not to break even here...

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I'll have another

The wheat chart (below) was pretty cute, but the Euro wasn't too shabby...

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While others are playing---

It was clearly a terrible day to trade ( in THE ES!!)...Just a reminder to my friends out there that are many ways to skin that cat...

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Bahh

It was a lost few days...software problems, hardware problems...overslept one day also, all of which was annoying, but at least I was smart enough to SIM trade only.

It wasn't all bad though, as I saw a couple of improvements (filters?) that look to be helpful. It will cut down on the number of entries, but at the same time I think it will reduce on the "judgement calls"...This adjustment is suited for a NEW entry, (usually in a new direction)...trade entries AFTER this initial signal are still subject to my older ideas)

I may move to slightly quicker 2584 vol chart...I have tried to use two charts (one for a longer term filter) but so far this causes more trouble than it's worth)

Possible New Rule
(an example of a buy signal)
Price is UNDER all three
---allas av
---vwap
---cycle MA (another possible filter-HAS to be green to trade long)

buy on a stop-one tick above AA
a 6 or 7 tick stop looks ok for now---more fine tuning to come

edit: When all these levels meet, this point of equilibrium may last awhile and be in chop---it will break out!!

edit: Must ignore my RSI on these entries---always going to be OB/OS---only use for re-entry sigs

edit: IF both the VWAP and the CMA are crossing each other AT THE PRICE, and pointed up it could be a good entry

It looks like even on Friday (which was horribly choppy and thin), taking every signal would have produced a small gain...more testing as always...

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just a day

I had some computer issues today, so no trades...I think it would have been an OK day-nothing earth shaking...I didn't seem to be too bothered with the problems...I was a little tired though as I have been spending too many hours in front of the screen lately. Anyway, I'm all fixed up after I had to remember the various stop strategies with Ninja...

It did feel good to just relax for a day...And now I'm gonna push away from the desk and call it a day...14 hours is plenty I guess...

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