Wednesday, September 30, 2009

this is sick---

. Wednesday, September 30, 2009
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I had a great day today, but to miss this ...well...it's annoying, but I can only look at so many markets at a time...
I like a time window on crude...seems (so far) to work better than any range I have seen to date.

Once you had the break, you really had no choice but to make about 120 points...
There are lots of false break outs in CL but wow---what a day today...

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I'll Have Another

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4 and 8 here...I was happy at the time...

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The First of the Day

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One had a choice here...I waited for the break below the previous plot cycle (the red line) but you can see the yellow arrow gave a signal on a close below all 3 lines...either one resulted in NO PAIN and very little drawdown either way...hard to believe one contact took 4 ticks, but the choppy days, that one point can put a smile on your face...anyway---4 and 24 on this little move...nice start!

and can Amy discern how that 24 was figured?

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Friday, September 25, 2009

Im not done---but Im hot and tired

. Friday, September 25, 2009
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There are always "contrarians" who THINK they are contrarians... ---I think this chart gets you thinking...This chart clearly suggests getting long was to get long when this chart broke 60 ish...My daily charts liked the creak out in mar/April... BUT truly diabolical thinking gets you thinking long in the last chart while P/E retros were breaking out above 60 ish... If you were a top picker, one might be out about NOW!

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Sunday, September 20, 2009

This has Nothing To Do

. Sunday, September 20, 2009
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With my day trading decisions...

but from a longer term perspective, you might think twice about " the recession is over" party line...

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Friday, September 18, 2009

life is good

. Friday, September 18, 2009
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sweet

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Thursday, September 17, 2009

It's Refreshing !

. Thursday, September 17, 2009
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I actually went out of my way today, and called (or IM'd) everyone I know to get the hell out of any long equity positions...
The way you have to look at any investment is---RISK...

Let us pretend I'm full of "stuff" and dead wrong in my long term scenario...does that mean the market will continue it's manic pace to the upside? I don't think so...

It's more fun than I thought to NOT straddle the fence...

SELL, SELL

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Wednesday, September 16, 2009

I Like This

. Wednesday, September 16, 2009
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Even though I typically loathe newsletters---this is a promo I received from "the boys" that was a dead on classic---

time to pay attention---

It's unanimous: The bear market is over, and a new bull market is back!

At least that's the conventional wisdom of the top 55 U.S. economists, who predict that the economy will grow in the fourth quarter through the first half of 2010. (All but one of them expect growth this quarter.)

Rewind to February-March of this year ...

... When those same economists reported that the economy was in "the worst recession since the Great Depression."

That's also precisely when stocks and commodities rallied.

Now, six months later, even the Fed chairman has declared the worst is over.

What's changed?

In a word: psychology.

The natural flow of investor psychology has traced out a recognizable pattern. As optimism builds, so does the perception of a recovery. It's to be expected -- even predictable. After all, the simple truth is that investors, advisors and analysts alike herd. Positive price action -- in their minds -- begets other positive action. It's all-too similar to the optimism we observed in late 2007, when various markets stood at or near their all-time highs.

But today not even the so-called fundamentals support the notion of a recovery:

  • Large pockets of the U.S. real estate market, including metro Atlanta, are still racking up record monthly foreclosures.
  • The global shipping industry has slowed to a crawl; thousands of ships around the world sit empty and idle.
  • Bank credit and the M3 money supply have been contracting at rates comparable to the onset of the Great Depression.
  • And believe it or not, reports are surfacing of lending institutions returning to their old tricks from two years ago.

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Friday, September 11, 2009

more ZN

. Friday, September 11, 2009
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Thursday, September 10, 2009

Thursday Comments

. Thursday, September 10, 2009
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That 1035 high "prediction" looks ok if you like getting up at 1 AM or so to trade!! In any case, the market did indeed break-out as expected and trended higher in a reasonable fashion. The note (ZN) market was good to me today, but it was all SIM trades again as I'm still fighting with computers...The gold market looks like it wants to challenge 1025 and get every last laggard of a gold bug to buy at the top; its gonna hurt when they get their dick slammed in the door on that one!

I feel like I have gone NOWHERE and done nothing for 2 weeks...One computer issue after another...Very annoying...
I downloaded a new version of Ninja, cleaned up the instrument manager and a few other tweaks; so far this afternoon it's all working perfectly using the E signal data and IB as a back up. Fingers are crossed for tomorrow morning!

I ordered an external HD today as I want to back everything up and re format the HD. I need an end to the 3 minute boot up process (which feels like 3 hours!)

I am re reading Trading in the Zone...It all makes sense but a much tougher read than a couple others...

Hard to believe the week is gone already...

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Thurs AM ZN

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I wrote above---a 3 tick max, when it was in fact a 3 POINT max...it has a better sound to it!

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Tuesday, September 8, 2009

For Tomorrow

. Tuesday, September 8, 2009
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Even though today was pretty good, the fact remains that the market was rangebound between 1020 and 1025. I am expecting some sort of break-out very soon. It seems like a rally early makes sense and it sure as heck looks like a given that 1027 gets hit. Sell signals after that? It sure would be fun to catch a trending day!!
numbers: 1019 on the downside is all I have that's close...upside is anywhere between 1025 and 1035

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Tired

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The last 10 days or so have been wearing...Hardware issues, software issues and Ninja again this morning. I THINK I have everything in order, but the next couple days should tell the story. I must say that Ninja support (although all E mail) is really on the ball. I'm also going to order a back up hard drive---I have been reading too many horror stories lately and for a hundred bucks for a one terabyte WD, seems like a no-brainer. Other frustrations abound, but not a thing I can do about it,so I will be trading around it for awhile.

I suppose the time off from trading has been helpful in a certain sense as my overall trading pattern has evolved yet again and looks better all the time. I was bogged down all day today with bullshit, and never really looked hard at a chart till recently...for a low volume day, it doesn't get much better than this...


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Not Much on This One

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Only had 2 1/2 ticks in it, but only a 2 tick DD as well...no reason not to break even here...

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